Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
